Bookmakers express optimism about Joe Biden finishing his initial term as the US president, yet skepticism is mounting regarding his chances of securing another four-year stint in the White House. So what are the betting odds on Joe Biden?
At 80, Biden is contending with plummeting approval ratings and the tangible threat of a government shutdown this winter as he embarks on the last year of his inaugural term.
The upcoming 2024 US election is poised to mirror the 2020 showdown between Biden and his rival Donald Trump.
Despite facing four ongoing or upcoming criminal trials, Trump continues to be the favored candidate to win the next election among Republicans.
Biden is running out of time to salvage his leadership, and British bookmakers are gradually distancing themselves from the seasoned politician.
To the extent that none of the major bookmakers have Biden ahead of Trump in their odds, with nearly all of them assigning the president an exceptionally low likelihood of remaining in office.
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Joe Biden’s Chances
As per the majority of political betting platforms, Biden holds a one-in-three probability of clinching the US election and securing a second term in office.
These odds seem remarkably slim, especially when you consider the typical polling advantage an incumbent president has going into a reelection campaign.
Ladbrokes has taken the lead in widening Biden’s odds, placing them at 9/4, indicating a mere 30.8% likelihood of him winning re-election.
None of the major players in the betting arena foresee a substantial probability of Biden losing his position before November 2024.
Given that the Democrats control the Senate, the House of Representatives cannot remove the president while an impeachment investigation is ongoing.
In truth, the only plausible scenarios for Biden relinquishing the presidency before election day are old age or illness.
As a result, bookmakers are now shifting their attention to the prospective winner of the US election, with Trump (6/4) emerging as the frontrunner at the moment.
2024 US Presidential Election Odds
Will Biden Secure Victory Over Trump Once Again?
In the 2020 election, Biden triumphed over Trump by a margin exceeding seven million votes, overcoming staunch opposition from hard-line Republicans to assume office.
Since then, the United States has grappled with internal strife, navigating the challenges posed by the ascent of populism in an era characterized by a blurred distinction between fact and fiction.
Despite facing over 90 felony charges across four legal cases, Trump has experienced a surge in support in recent months. It is highly likely that he will secure the Republican nomination and engage in a rematch with fellow veteran Biden, replicating the dynamics of the 2020 contest.
Biden has been cognizant of this impending scenario since his inauguration. However, he appears to be unable to reverse the trend of his approval ratings stagnating below 40%.
In order to defeat Trump’s formidable challenge and win the Electoral College votes necessary for a second presidential term, Biden needs more than half of the country to support him.
Polling data indicates that in 2024, Trump could potentially flip key states like Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, thereby prevailing over Biden, even if the incumbent manages to secure the popular vote.
Biden has tentatively entered the early stages of an election campaign, but Trump’s strategy, which turns every court summons into a campaign rally, significantly overshadows his on-the-ground engagement.
At present, Biden must instill hope in Americans that their lives will improve under his leadership.
Economic concerns heavily influence undecided voters, and Biden aims to increase spending. However, securing approval from Congress and the GOP-led House, which shows little enthusiasm for government expenditure, poses a significant challenge.
Moreover, Biden is contending with the complexities of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the ongoing conflicts in Israel and Gaza.
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Conclusion
Navigating this path is a challenging task for any president, particularly when faced with a vocal opponent scrutinizing every decision.
Ultimately, the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election might hinge on financial considerations. Trump touts his business empire as evidence of his ability to manage the economy.
On the other hand, Biden asserts that the Democrats possess the financial strength to invest in America’s future.
The fact that 57.9% of all bets in this market support the former president may be the reason why betting software is currently leaning towards Trump.
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